The Fed is Buying Time – but the Clock is Running

A Collision of Forces Inflation has now exceeded the Fed’s 2% target for more than 5 years. Just as the latest readings showed tentative moderation, the U.S.–Iran conflict delivered an oil-price shock that threatens to undo that progress. Energy costs feed through quickly—into freight, manufacturing, food distribution, airfares, and utility bills. The risk is no […]

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Fear Not!

Markets run on fear or greed. A great time to invest is when there is no euphoria. Our animal instincts kick in when we see or hear unpleasant scenarios. First tariffs, then immigration issues, labor shortage in low-skilled jobs, and then the Iran war. The knee-jerk reaction is fight-or-flight, and flight to safety. Historically, the

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Fed raised the rates by 50 basis points; how high the fed rate could go?

Federal Reserve raised the interest rate by 50 basis points to 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent given the stubbornly high Inflation, lower unemployment, and broad price pressure due to supply imbalance between aggregate demand and supply.   Recent employment and inflation data have zigged and zagged in many directions this year. In some months, data came

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Taming Inflation

Inflation cooled more than expected in November, raising hope that the Federal Reserve will be able to ease back on the series of aggressive interest-rate increases it has rolled out this year as it seeks to get prices under control. The consumer price index climbed at a 7.1% annual pace in November, down from October’s

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Let us not sugarcoat it.

The spread between 10-year and three-month bonds is in negative territory, implying financial institutions have less incentive to extend loans to borrowers. The latest data from the conference board suggests the leading economic indicators are dropping. We hear the big “R” word (recession) often by the corporate leaders in the quarterly meetings. Global firms are

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Investor Sentiment as a Contrarian Indicator.

AAII sentiment indicator shows pessimism at 60%. Sentiment describes a group of people’s opinions, emotions, or views. In investing, sentiment can be a powerful determinant of security prices, especially in the short run. Emotions—whether rational or irrational—can drive market prices. The price at which an individual security trades is the total sentiment of all market

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Global Central Banks Following the Fed’s Path.

With inflation at multi-decade highs in many countries and pressures broadening beyond food and energy prices, policymakers have pivoted toward tighter policy. The monetary policy cycle is now increasingly synchronized around the world. Notably, the pace of tightening is accelerating in several countries, particularly in advanced economies, in terms of both frequency and magnitude of

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Fed Raises Interest Rates by 0.75 Percentage Point.

Officials project short-term rates will rise above 4.25% by year’s end, signaling further large increases at future meetings. The Federal Reserve approved its third consecutive interest-rate rise of 0.75 percentage points. It signaled significant additional increases were likely at future meetings as it combats inflation that remains near a 40-year high. The decision Wednesday, unanimously supported by the Fed’s 12-member

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